Epidemic Simulator
Hi! This is a simple, cohort-based epidemic simulation. More details below.
*changing this value will cause a restart of the simulation.
Day 0 Total sick 238 Total healthy 83M Total cured 0 Total deceased 0
Sick People
Healthy People
New Infections
Cured People
Deceased People
Age Cohorts: Sick People
Age Cohorts: Deceased People
Relative Values
Cohort Mortality Rate
Age Cohorts
Simulation Details
The simulation starts with a given pool of infected people, which fall
sick for a given amount of days and have a given chance of dying during
their sickness, with a mortality that depends on their age
(see above). A sick person will infect a given number of other people
while sick, the total number of infections over the
course of the sickness is given as the infection rate
(you can tune this parameter). Only healthy people can be infected,
i.e. once someone is cured we assume that person cannot be infected again.
Also, we assume that the infection rate is based on the number of interactions
with other people from the population, hence when the number of healthy
vs. cured and infected people decreases in a given age cohort, the chance of
infecting someone from that cohort also decreases.
We use the age distribution of the German population to evaluate
the effect of the infection on different age cohorts.
By varying the infection rate you can get a feeling for how
different rates affect the number of deceased people, the
speed of the spreading of the infection and the maximum number
of infected people.
Feel free to suggest improvements and contribute to this project on Github.
This is not a realistic simulation, it only provides a
(hopefully) intuitive way
to visualize the relationship between infection rate and the
spreading of the infection through the population.